"In climate research and modelling we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled-nonlinear chaotic system and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible" IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (2001) Section 14.2.2.2 page 774.
Monday, May 9, 2016
Sunday, April 24, 2016
Saturday, April 23, 2016
Trials of mindfulness to improve mental health selectively report positive results
Power of positive thinking skews mindfulness studies
Researchers at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, analysed 124 published trials of mindfulness as a mental-health treatment, and found that scientists reported positive findings 60% more often than is statistically likely.
Friday, April 15, 2016
The growth and decline of cryonics
Abstract
Cryogenic storage has become known as an alternative to burial. While a substantial fraction of the public finds cryonics acceptable, enrollment remains miniscule. One of the greatest unknowns is whether cryonics companies will be able to operate continuously until reanimation of those in storage becomes possible. Two failure modes are considered; organizational decline and political attack. The cryonics industry has adopted a strategy that implicitly targets atheist millionaires and alienates women. This is a result of neglecting science in its marketing efforts. American cryonics organizations have also incurred an avoidable political risk by refusing to use the funeral industry as a sales channel. Two alternative strategies are suggested that could minimize failure risk by reversing the stagnation of the industry. A “repackaging” of cryonics could accelerate growth and improve services, as well as the political position of the industry. This repackaging includes a restructuring of the channels for funding cryonics. Integration with the mainstream assumes using the funeral industry as a sales channel. While both political experiences and research results have made the need for these developments apparent, pioneers of the industry have resisted them.
Public Interest Statement
The search for a “fountain of youth” has occupied mankind since the beginning of human history. Cryonics (freezing at death) offers one of the latest solutions. Revival with a regenerated body is seen as possible, assuming technology has become sufficiently advanced. However, cryogenic storage must be maintained, probably for hundreds of years. This paper was written to alert cryonicists of the need for greater organizational robustness, if there was to be any hope that this experiment would succeed. Literature on organizational failure and on barriers to enrollment were reviewed. Two strategies for restarting growth were presented. Unfortunately, industry leadership refused to accept that there were problems and even censored earlier versions of this paper. While cryonicists consider themselves to be taking a scientific approach to life extension, this response to criticism suggests religious fanaticism. An analysis of leadership attitudes and behavior indicates that cryonics has become a religion for many.
The growth and decline of cryonics (Full article)
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Unrealistic technological optimism inhibits technological progress
"A regenerative medicine specialist has called for a crackdown on the increasing number of doctors offering unproven stem cell treatments, as skepticism about the practice threatens a potentially groundbreaking clinical study."
Another newspaper story describes the details:
Another newspaper story describes the details:
These headlines speak for themselves. Premature application of breakthrough medical technology can result in legal complications that may slow down the research. If the research area is discredited by premature application, future funding for the area may become more limited.
Unfortunately, this same dynamic is seen in the life-extension area. In particular, cryonics has been promoted for a long time as a potential method to extend life. However, those in favor of a truly scientific approach feel that current methods discredit serious researchers.
Kenneth Hayworth comments:
A rush to human application may sound humanitarian, but I believe it will only result in further delaying the eventual, inevitable embracing of cryonics (and other methods of brain preservation) by mainstream science and medicine. Simply put, rushing to human application will, in my opinion, only result in many more lives lost over the long run.
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
Admissions of Lack of Consensus by prominent “alarmists” in the climate change debate
Even prominent “alarmists” in the climate change debate admit there is noconsensus. Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, when asked if the debate on climate change is over, told the BBC, “I don’t believe the vast majority of climate scientists think this. This is not my view” (BBC News, 2010). When asked, “Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860–1880, 1910–1940 and 1975– 1998 were identical?” Jones replied, Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below). I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.
So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.
Finally, when asked “Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming” he answered “yes.” Jones’ replies contradict claims made by IPCC.
Mike Hulme, also a professor at the University of East Anglia and a contributor to IPCC reports, wrote in 2009: “What is causing climate change? By how much is warming likely to accelerate? What level of warming is dangerous? – represent just three of a number of contested or uncertain areas of knowledge about climate change” (Hulme, 2009, p. 75). He admits “Uncertainty pervades scientific predictions about the future performance of global and regional climates. And uncertainties multiply when considering all the consequences that might follow from such changes in climate” (p. 83). On the subject of IPCC’s credibility, he admits it is “governed by a Bureau consisting of selected governmental representatives, thus ensuring that the Panel’s work was clearly seen to be serving the needs of government and policy. The Panel was not to be a self-governing body of independent scientists” (p. 95). All this is exactly what IPCC critics have been saying for years.
Monday, February 29, 2016
Richard "Selfish Gene" Dawkins has increased the religious belief that he makes a business of opposing
Paul states that greater social and economic instability is expected to produce greater religiosity. He points to the neo-liberal policies of Thatcher and Reagan. These economic policies have been used to transfer wealth to the rich.
Richard "Selfish Gene" Dawkins developed a following of libertarians pushing social darwinism as their religion. While the term "Selfish Gene" itself is not used in the professional literature, the individualism implied has played a major role in, for example, the debates about group selection in evolutionary theory, in Friedman's and related economic theories, in certain lines of research in artificial intelligence, such as genetic algorithms, etc. So, the concept has served as a lens through which many of the “soft” science questions have been viewed over the last thirty years. Therefore, it is Dawkins' devotion to extreme individualism that has led to the increase in religious belief that he makes a business of opposing.
See the book "Unto others" for support of group selection on an intro. level.
For a more advanced treatment, see for example:
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